3/21/2023 0 Comments Scientists finetune odds hitting![]() ![]() ![]() The probability that asteroid Bennu will slam into Earth may have gone up, but there is still no cause for concern. The area of devastation would be much bigger: as much as 100 times the size of the crater. If Bennu did slam into Earth, it wouldn’t wipe out life, but rather create a crater roughly 10 to 20 times the size of the asteroid, said Lindley Johnson, Nasa's planetary defence officer. So, 0.002 AU is roughly 186,000 miles or 300,000 kilometres - well within the orbit of Earth's moon.) (An astronomical unit is the distance between the Earth and the sun. The asteroid, which is roughly 500 meters (1,640 feet) in diameter and wider than the Empire State Building is tall, orbits the sun once every 1.2 years, or 436.604 days.Įvery six years or so, Bennu comes very close to Earth - about 0.002 AU, according to the University of Arizona. Handout photo of a NASA spacecraft extended an 11-foot-long robot arm and descended to the surface of asteroid Bennu Facts and figuresīennu was discovered by the Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research (LINEAR) project, which detects and tracks near-Earth objects, in 1999. The Osiris-REx also scooped up a sample of rock and dust from the asteroid’s surface, which it will deliver to Earth on 24 September 2023, for further scientific investigation. Their findings should also help in charting the course of other asteroids and give Earth a better fighting chance if and when another hazardous space rock heads our way. ![]() Using that data, the team behind the new research was able to fine-tune their understanding of the space rock's location and movement. Throughout that time, the spacecraft constantly logged its location with respect to Earth and to the asteroid. Backgroundīefore leaving Bennu on, Osiris-REx spent more than two years in close proximity to the asteroid, gathering information about its size, shape, mass, and composition, while monitoring its spin and orbital trajectory. Scientists must understand Bennu's exact trajectory during that encounter in order to predict how Earth's gravity will alter its path around the sun - and affect the risk of a future impact. "We have time to keep tracking the asteroid and eventually come to a final answer."īennu will make a close approach with Earth in 2135, but scientists believe it will not pose a danger to our planet at that time. "So there is no particular reason for concern," he says. "The impact probability went up just a little bit, but it's not a significant change," says Davide Farnocchia at the Center for Near Earth Object Studies at Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, pointing out that there is a 99.94 per cent probability that Bennu is not on an impact trajectory. Still, the researchers studying Bennu say that we shouldn't be too worried. The most significant date in terms of a potential impact is 24 September 2182, with an impact probability of one in 2,700 (or about 0.037 per cent) on that day. The study finds a one-in-1,750 chance of a future collision over the next three centuries - a slightly higher probability than previously thought. The researchers then analysed the impact hazard between now and the year 2300. In a new study published in the scientific journal Icarus, scientists used data from the spacecraft to make a precise calculation of Bennu’s orbit and its future proximity to our home planet. Handout of artists impression of NASA's Origins Explorer spacecraft 'OSIRIS-REx ![]()
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